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NOAA Predicts Near Normal
NOAA Predicts Near Normal or Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season
As With Any Season, Preparation is Essential
 The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate
Prediction Center today announced that
projected climate conditions point to a near normal or above
normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year. The
prediction was issued at a news conference called to urge
residents in vulnerable areas to be fully prepared for the
onset of hurricane season, which begins June 1.
"Living
in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every
hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now -
before a storm threatens," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad
C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans
and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "Planning and preparation
is the key to storm survival and recovery."
The
Climate Prediction Center outlook calls for considerable activity
with a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and
a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. This means
there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season.
The
climate patterns expected during this year's hurricane season
have in past seasons produced a wide range of activity and
have been associated with both near-normal and above-normal
seasons. For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent
chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes
and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson
Scale).
An
average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes
for which two reach major status.
"The
outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane
activity," Lautenbacher said. "It does not predict whether,
where or when any of these storms may hit land. That is the
job of the National Hurricane Center after a storm forms."
Bill
Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane
Center, said, "Our forecasters are ready
to track any tropical cyclone, from a depression to a hurricane,
which forms in the Atlantic Basin. We urge coastal residents
to have a hurricane plan in place before the season begins
and NHC will continue to provide the best possible forecast
to the public."
When
a storm forms in the tropics - and even before that stage
- NOAA forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center
are in continuous monitoring mode - employing a dense network
of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors and aircraft
reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners.
This array of data supplies the information for complex computer
modeling and human expertise that serves the basis for the
hurricane center's track and intensity forecasts that extend
out five days in advance.
The
science behind the outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction
of current and future global climate patterns as compared
to previous seasons with similar conditions.
"The
main factors influencing this year's seasonal outlook are
the continuing multi-decadal signal (the combination of ocean
and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased hurricane
activity since 1995), and the anticipated lingering effects
of La Niņa," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane
forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "One of the
expected oceanic conditions is a continuation since 1995 of
warmer-than-normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic."
 "Americans
in hurricane-prone states must get serious and be prepared.
Government - even with the federal, tribal, state and local
governments working perfectly in sync - is not the entire
answer. Everyone is part of the emergency management process,"
said FEMA Administrator R. David Paulison. "We must continue
to develop a culture of preparedness in America in which every
American takes personal responsibility for his or her own
emergency preparedness."
NOAA's
Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be updated on August
7, just prior to what is historically the peak period for
hurricane activity.
Tropical
systems acquire a name - the first of which for 2008 will
be Arthur - upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained
winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become hurricanes
when winds reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when
winds reach 111 mph.
The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency
of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing
economic security and national safety through the prediction
and research of weather and climate-related events and information
service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental
stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources.
Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System
of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal
partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission
to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated
as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
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